LAHORE:
A total of 3,712 fire hotspots were detected within a 300-kilometre radius of Lahore over a week, including 2,753 in Pakistan and 957 in India, according to a satellite-based analysis by the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative (PAQI).
The number of fire hotspots recorded in Pakistan between October 27 and November 2, 2026, was 15 per cent higher than the 2,390 recorded during the same period last year. It was also 51 per cent above the eight-year average of 1,824 for the corresponding dates between 2018 and 2025.
In contrast, the number of hotspots detected in India was significantly lower than its eight-year average of 10,448, with only 957 recorded during the week under review.
The analysis, based on data from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), shows considerable variations in fire activity over the past eight years. Pakistan and India recorded a combined 19,674 hotspots in 2018, 10,563 in 2019, 21,157 in 2020, 15,860 in 2021, 16,118 in 2022, 6,743 in 2023, 4,464 in 2024 and 3,667 in 2025. The combined figure for the current year stood at 3,712.
The PAQI analysis also examined the relationship between fire activity and air pollution in Lahore. It found that an increase in fire hotspots during the second half of October coincided with rising levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The daily average PM2.5 concentration in Lahore rose from around 220 to 285 micrograms per cubic metre near November 1 and 2.
However, the analysis does not establish that crop residue burning was the sole cause of the increase in pollution.
To examine the movement of air masses reaching Lahore, researchers used the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) HYSPLIT model to track air movement at an altitude of 500 metres over the preceding 72 hours. The model mapped air trajectories reaching Lahore from Afghanistan and India.
Punjab Senior Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb has said that winds originating from the Indian cities of Amritsar and Attari contribute to air pollution in Lahore. However, air trajectory modelling identifies the possible movement of air masses and does not independently establish the source of pollutants.
Separately, data published by HamariHawa on November 3 showed significant fire activity across Pakistani Punjab. During the preceding seven days, 10,494 fire hotspots were recorded within a 250-kilometre radius of Faisalabad, 10,115 around Lahore, 9,537 around Sargodha and 8,836 around Gujranwala.
In comparison, Indian Punjab recorded 8,892 hotspots around Amritsar, 6,853 around Ludhiana and 3,210 around Chandigarh during the same period.
Experts caution that satellite-detected fire hotspots should not automatically be classified as incidents of crop residue burning. Such detections indicate the presence of heat or fire but do not identify the activity responsible or quantify the resulting smoke emissions.
According to the satellite monitoring methodology, each fire detection represents an area of approximately 375 metres. Cloud cover can also prevent satellites from detecting fires in some locations.
Experts say identifying the sources of Lahore’s smog requires a combined assessment of satellite observations, ground-based air quality monitoring and meteorological data.
