There is strong consensus among experts that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season
KARACHI:
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on Friday that most parts of South Asia were likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, while temperatures were expected to remain higher than average.
El Niño is a climatic phase in the Pacific Ocean marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures, while its counterpart, La Niña, brings cooler-than-average waters. Together, they form the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, a key driver of global weather patterns.
The outlook was finalised at the 34th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-34), held in Malé, Maldives, with participation from experts representing national meteorological and hydrological services of nine countries, alongside international climate organisations.
According to an official statement from the PMD, the forum noted that “below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June–September) over most parts of South Asia, particularly across the central parts of the region.”
However, the forum noted regional variation, stating that “some areas over the north-western, northeastern, and parts of the southern region are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall.”
The statement also highlighted rising temperatures, warning that “during the season, minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across most of South Asia.”
On major climate drivers, the forum said that “currently, ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are transitioning toward an El Niño.”
It added that, “based on global climate model forecasts, there is strong consensus among experts that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season.”
Regarding the Indian Ocean, the statement noted, “Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean,” but added that “climate models indicate that a positive IOD phase is likely to emerge later in the monsoon season.”
Participants at the forum reviewed both observed and projected climatic conditions, including ENSO, IOD, northern hemisphere winter and spring snow cover, and land surface temperature anomalies, all of which can influence monsoon performance.
The meeting included representatives from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in Pune, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Korea Meteorological Administration, and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, among others.
Read: El Nino alert: summer turns fierce
The forum also cautioned about forecast uncertainty, noting that “global climate model predictions prior to and during the spring season generally have noticeable uncertainty due to the spring barrier in seasonal predictability.”
It added that “other regional and global factors, as well as intra-seasonal features of the region, can also affect the seasonal climate patterns.”
According to meteorological projections, the activation of El Nino could lead to higher temperatures, reduced wind speeds, and below-average rainfall in Pakistan. In extreme cases, this may also trigger drought-like conditions in certain regions.
The PMD had issued a heatwave alert on Tuesday, warning that the southern parts of the country could experience a low-intensity heatwave between April 29 and May 3. During this period, temperatures may soar to as high as 52°C in some areas.
Historical climate data shows that May and June are typically the hottest months of the year in Pakistan. Areas most vulnerable to extreme heat include southern Punjab, upper Sindh, and southeastern Balochistan, where average temperatures range between 43°C and 45°C. Observational data suggests that temperatures in these regions are already running 2-4°C above normal.
Explaining the science behind the phenomenon, PMD spokesperson and Deputy Director Anjum Nazir Zaigham stated that El Niño and La Niña were two phases of the same climatic system. During El Niño, waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than usual, directly influencing weather conditions in Pakistan. This can result in prolonged heat spells, weaker winds, reduced rainfall, and even drought in some areas. In contrast, La Niña brings cooler ocean temperatures, often leading to stronger winds, increased rainfall, and cooler conditions across Pakistan and other parts of South Asia.
Citing data from the World Meteorological Organisation, Zaigham added that current sea surface temperatures were already 0.5°C above normal. If this anomaly reached 0.8°C, the likelihood of El Niño forming in May rose sharply to 61%.
With climate signals aligning and temperatures already trending above average, Pakistan may be heading into a summer where the heat does not just arrive-it tightens its grip.
