Cloudburst or just heavy rain?
ISLAMABAD:
Leading meteorologists are raising red flags over the growing misuse of the term “cloudburst” in Pakistan’s media and public discourse.
According to experts, casually labeling every episode of intense monsoon rain as a cloudburst not only spreads unnecessary fear but also undermines the seriousness of genuine warnings.
Officials stress that a cloudburst is a rare and scientifically defined phenomenon, triggered by orographic effects in the atmospherewhen moisture-laden air is rapidly lifted over mountainous terrain, causing sudden, extremely heavy rainfall over a small, localised area.
In contrast, the widespread downpours currently battering Swat, Buner, Chitral, and parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa are severe, but not technically cloudbursts.
Director General of the PMD, Mahr Sahibzad Khan said that the term “cloudburst” is often misused, and this leads to confusion.
“A cloudburst is very different from heavy rain. We gave early warnings one month before the onset of monsoon, and specifically intimated on 23 June. The tragic Swat incident of June 27 happened despite repeated forecasts.”
Mahr Sahibzad Khan explained that the PMD issues timely forecasts through a multi-layered systemfirst alerting a month in advance, then updating when monsoon systems cross Central India and enter Sindh and northern Pakistan. Before any severe weather, the Department also releases a Nowcasta highly localized, three-hour forecast aimed at guiding local administrations and the public. “These forecasts are only useful if people take them seriously,” he said, adding that the PMD’s forecasting equipment is calibrated annually in winter to maintain precision. Chief Meteorologist Dr Afzaal recalled that a true cloudburst once struck Islamabad in 2001, when 600mm of rain fell within 10 hoursa scale not seen since. He urged the public to respect official warnings: “Avoid going outside in extreme weather and plan outdoor activities according to forecasts.”
Highlighting the human dimension, DG Khan praised the efforts of Qurat-ul-Ain Wazir, then Additional Deputy Commissioner of Nowshera, who went door-to-door during earlier floods to persuade families to evacuate. “That is the level of seriousness we need in disaster response,” he noted.
Asma Jwad Hashmi, Director of the National Agromet Centre, also issued a message to the people of flood-hit areas: “Stay aware of the weather by checking forecasts regularly. Awareness and timely precautionary measures are the first line of defense.”
Officials also drew attention to climate change, noting that warmer air carries more moisture, making monsoon patterns more erratic and dangerous. They referenced global examples of deadly cloudbursts in Uttarakhand (India), Ladakh, and even parts of Europe, stressing that Pakistan must prepare for similar extreme weather events.